Last December I was bold enough to gaze into my foggy crystal ball and prognosticate on the future of our HR industry.  Well it’s time to assess my performance and take my lumps where appropriate.  I don’t consider myself dim, but this bulb did not shine as brightly as I would have hoped.

I called 2008 “A Year of Shifting Priorities” and presented four predictions for the coming year, including:

1. The Beginning of the Employee Power Shift: Can you believe I said, “I see 2008 as the year of a pendulum swing back in favor of the employee”?  Really.  I said that??  Wow.  This was a giant swing-and-a-miss for me.  Not only did employees take a swift kick in the rear across 2008, but I’ve personally witnessed employers recklessly wielding the big stick to wipe out thousands upon thousands of FTEs.  Who would have thought the market would be relieved by jobless claims “easing” to 554,000 from 575,000 the week prior?  Sorry employees, the power is definitely not in your hands.  Inflexion Point Grade – F
2. A Major HRO Provider Will Divest: This seemed like a sure thing. But let’s be honest, the large market HR Outsourcing (HRO) industry remains plagued with challenges and 2008 was an awful year for most providers.  Missed earnings.  Delayed implementations.  Major write downs.  It’s a head-scratcher that many continue to play in the space. What I didn’t control for was the fact that providers would simply change the definition of HRO.  That nit aside, I have to concede that no major HRO provider divested of their business in 2008… yet. (NOTE – We still have a few weeks left for Convergys to sell its business unit to a large Indian firm!)  Inflexion Point Grade – F 
3. HR Will (Still) Not Have a Seat at the Table:  Can you believe I used to talk like that?  ”Seat at the table” is on the list of industry phrases that I’ve permanently banned from my vocabulary.  Semantics aside, I do not believe that HR materially progressed against this historic challenge.  This isn’t due to a lack of effort, but instead can be attributed in large part to a tremendous volume of unexpected transactions (see #1 above). And transactions are bad news if you’re an up-and-coming HR change agent.  Sure, there were examples of innovative practices, new ideas and differentiated leadership, but unfortunately those were the exception rather than the rule.  Inflexion Point Grade – B
4. HR Vendor Scrutiny Will Increase: Nailed it! This one proved to be rather obvious in retrospect.  We saw a tremendous number of business combinations over the course of 2008, some serious accounting issues, great concerns over sustainability, huge issues with profitability and a very public court battle over an email entitled “The Naked Truth”.  And guess what, this issue isn’t going away anytime soon.  Inflexion Point Grade – A

Oh well, it looks like I won’t be bonus eligible this year after all.  Fortunately 2009 is right around the corner and who knows what sort of nonsensical mumbo-jumbo I’ll come up with this time around.  Time to polish the old crystal ball and really think this one through.  In the meantime, let’s keep the conversation going. 

Approximately 150 of us arrived at IQPC’s base camp on Tuesday morning.  Breakfast was served, an orientation was held and gear was passed out to help us navigate through the two-day Summit push that was about to commence.  HR attendees had assembled from all points, and hopes were high for an inspirational few days.

I arrived a bit late and hastily strapped on my harness and shoes.  I was placed in the back with a team that included Punk Rock HR‘s Laurie Ruettimann, HR Wench‘s Jenn Barnes and HR Minion.  We were so innocent in our ignorance of what was to come.

What started as a clear day quickly turned stormy.  We were pelted in the face with wind-whipped phrases like “HR’s seat at the table”, “strategic business partners”, “strategic asset” and other pedantic dribble.  Voices came from on high warning us about the eminent danger HR faced.  A few unprepared speakers slid quickly over a precipice, plummeting head first into micro-fonted PowerPoint chasms a mile deep.  Yet still we pressed onward, our hope not yet fully dashed.

Every so often an IQPC climbing guide would appear, the backs of their parkas slick with the snake oils that charmed us onto the mountain.  They smiled, but their acronym did not warm our minds as the temperature dropped.  No “I” for International, “Q” for Quality or “P” for Productivity was to be found.  We were on a fool’s errand but refused to stop.

The horn sounded for lunch and I realized I was no longer with my group.  Instead, I found myself sandwiched between an extremely angry magazine editor (“I got the CEO of Delta fired!”) and the group head of talent for Mastercard (“…wasting $1,400 on a conference – priceless”).  We made painful small talk and I used my growing anger to keep me warm.

Regrouping with my team, we saw the storm break in the early afternoon with the arrival of Harrah’s VP of Talent, Susan Hailey.  She was funny, pragmatic, engaging and did not bullshit the audience or talk to them like five-year-olds at a birthday party (“Now Johnny, you know it’s not time to eat recruiting cake yet…”).  Susan was from Silicon Valley and embodied the entrepreneurial spirit.  We resumed climbing with vigor and a sarcastic smile.

The day dragged on as darkness quickly set in.  If not for the yellow font against the white background of a presentation (I wish I were kidding), we wouldn’t have realized we were backsliding down the mountain of progressive thinking.  I tried to get my ice-axe to grab hold of an original thought and stop my team from mental free-fall.  

Exhausted, disheartened, frustrated and angry, we finally hit a ledge and slept off the first day’s events.  I’ll let Jon Krakauer paraphrase my group’s feelings post-Day 1:

“I’d been fantasizing about this moment, and the release of emotion that would accompany it, for many months. But now that I was finally here, standing [at the Talent Management Summit], I just couldn’t summon the energy to care.” – Into Thin Air

In Part II we’ll talk through the second day of the Summit push, highlight a few speakers who brought oxygen to the dying, and take personal responsibility for the calamity that was this God-awful conference.  Until then, let’s keep the conversation going.

Enjoying the coveted view, she looks around and likely sees the CEO, CFO, COO, CIO, CMO and perhaps other executives discussing the current and future state of the business.  Given the significant influence that each executive exerts, what happens when the individual personalities change?  Put another way, how does C-level tenure impact one’s ability to drive value?

• CEO: A 2007 Harvard Law School study shows that a “manager CEO” of a S&P 500 firm averages 5.5. years of tenure.  Crist Associates’ 2007 Volatility Report also shows the majority of CEOs with less than 5 years of service.
• CFO: Crist has CFOs at just over 5 years and on the rise.  However, SOX compliance is still having a negative impact on longevity.  
• COO: Chief Operating Officer tenure is shrinking to just under 3 years, with the total number of Fortune and S&P 500 COOs diminishing at a perilous rate.  
• CIO: According to the 2008 State of the CIO poll results, a Chief Information Officer’s average time in seat is about 4.4 years, down from 5.1 years in the prior period.
• CMO: Spencer Stuart’s annual study shows Chief Marketing Officers at a mere 26.8 months, which is actually up from 23.2 months in the prior year.

Right.  So your COO and CMO will survive less than three years.  Your CIO is about four and a half and your CFO and CEO less than five and a half.  Suddenly it hits you – one of your most important tasks now that you have a seat at the table is to focus on a succession plan for those in the C-suite.  

This is an uncomfortable realization, yet an item that is often overlooked, even by market-leading organizations.  What’s perhaps more uncomfortable is the assessment of your own C-level survival, with Workforce Magazine’s analysis (and Corsello’s math) putting an average CHRO in seat for approximately 3.1 years.    

If all this executive rotation has your head spinning, grab some ginger pills, put on the motion sickness patch, stay calm, and let’s try and keep the conversation going.