Last December I was bold enough to gaze into my foggy crystal ball and prognosticate on the future of our HR industry.  Well it’s time to assess my performance and take my lumps where appropriate.  I don’t consider myself dim, but this bulb did not shine as brightly as I would have hoped.

I called 2008 “A Year of Shifting Priorities” and presented four predictions for the coming year, including:

1. The Beginning of the Employee Power Shift: Can you believe I said, “I see 2008 as the year of a pendulum swing back in favor of the employee”?  Really.  I said that??  Wow.  This was a giant swing-and-a-miss for me.  Not only did employees take a swift kick in the rear across 2008, but I’ve personally witnessed employers recklessly wielding the big stick to wipe out thousands upon thousands of FTEs.  Who would have thought the market would be relieved by jobless claims “easing” to 554,000 from 575,000 the week prior?  Sorry employees, the power is definitely not in your hands.  Inflexion Point Grade – F
2. A Major HRO Provider Will Divest: This seemed like a sure thing. But let’s be honest, the large market HR Outsourcing (HRO) industry remains plagued with challenges and 2008 was an awful year for most providers.  Missed earnings.  Delayed implementations.  Major write downs.  It’s a head-scratcher that many continue to play in the space. What I didn’t control for was the fact that providers would simply change the definition of HRO.  That nit aside, I have to concede that no major HRO provider divested of their business in 2008… yet. (NOTE – We still have a few weeks left for Convergys to sell its business unit to a large Indian firm!)  Inflexion Point Grade – F 
3. HR Will (Still) Not Have a Seat at the Table:  Can you believe I used to talk like that?  ”Seat at the table” is on the list of industry phrases that I’ve permanently banned from my vocabulary.  Semantics aside, I do not believe that HR materially progressed against this historic challenge.  This isn’t due to a lack of effort, but instead can be attributed in large part to a tremendous volume of unexpected transactions (see #1 above). And transactions are bad news if you’re an up-and-coming HR change agent.  Sure, there were examples of innovative practices, new ideas and differentiated leadership, but unfortunately those were the exception rather than the rule.  Inflexion Point Grade – B
4. HR Vendor Scrutiny Will Increase: Nailed it! This one proved to be rather obvious in retrospect.  We saw a tremendous number of business combinations over the course of 2008, some serious accounting issues, great concerns over sustainability, huge issues with profitability and a very public court battle over an email entitled “The Naked Truth”.  And guess what, this issue isn’t going away anytime soon.  Inflexion Point Grade – A

Oh well, it looks like I won’t be bonus eligible this year after all.  Fortunately 2009 is right around the corner and who knows what sort of nonsensical mumbo-jumbo I’ll come up with this time around.  Time to polish the old crystal ball and really think this one through.  In the meantime, let’s keep the conversation going.