Gearing up your 2010 reflective engines, you may let your mind soar over your personal and professional landscape in an attempt to observe and report from a dispassionate distance. There are moments you’ll be proud of, those which make you cringe and others whose outcome and impact are still somewhat clouded and unresolved.
As you float above the fray and attempt to make sense of it all, a distant object approaches at high speed. Suddenly buzzing past you are the 2011 wing-walking fools who squint their eyes into the blinding sun and pretend to see what’s ahead, often misinterpreting the smallest of clues as a means of preparing a seemingly interested world for what is most assuredly an uncertain future.
I am one of those fools.
But before I crash into the future, let’s take a quick journey back to December of 2009, a time when I predicted that 2010 would be the “Year of the HR Truism“:
2010 Scorecard
- Prediction #1: The Vocal Minority Will Be Unhappy - Since these are truisms, this one was painfully easy to predict accurately, peaking in a crescendo of outrage over a certain association, the activities of said association’s board and their subsequent treatment of those who attempted to enlighten the masses on their alleged actions. Some were vocal and very unhappy but alas they were still the minority. Score: A+
- Prediction #2: Technology Will Fix What Ails Us – Despite budgets opening up just slightly this past year, we did see signs that organizations were making the types of investments necessary for this particular truism to at least partially blossom. Per Towers Watson’s 2010 HR Service Delivery Survey Report, “not only were a great number of HR service delivery initiatives undertaken by organizations in the last 18 months, but they also (finally) delivered the desired results, often not just meeting but also exceeding expectations.” Score: B
- Prediction #3: The Value Of Memberships Will Be (Passively) Questioned – See Prediction #1 above for the catalyst for much of this questioning, yet I believe this was a slight miss because there was absolutely nothing passive about it. Practitioners were quite vocal about this issue in 2010, with some describing exactly why membership adds little to no value while others rose to the defense of these same memberships. It was a very positive and somewhat heated debate, something I believe to be quite healthy for a function that could use some more time in the public square. Score: B-
- Prediction #4: Managers Will Terrorize HR – This is a very tough one to assess and probably should have been eliminated from the outset. Of course I witnessed this to be true in 2010, but I also saw many managers step up to the plate and take on more responsibility for their people. This was a year of digging out of the recessionary rubble for most and I suppose the real HR terror might come in the form of what many predict as a mass exodus of top talent, but since we’re talking about 2010, this is a miss. Score: F
Not a bad performance but as purported truisms I should have nailed them all. This whole prognosticating business is such nonsense but why start bucking tradition now. Thus, I present you with:
2011: The Year of Reactionary HR
I’m not in love with the title but let’s spend a minute discussing why this may come true.
Over the course of the recession we found a function forced to eliminate a massive amount of its workforce, slash its operating and capital budgets, reduce its own personnel and co-depend much more heavily on third-party service providers to assist with a mass of regulatory and legislative changes, selective recruiting initiatives, globalization and technological rationalization and deployment. Meanwhile, a skeleton crew of HR full-time equivalents tried to keep the basics of payroll, benefits, compliance and other day-to-day activities in check and on target.
As the recession abates and we begin to poke our heads out of the Whac-A-Mole hole, we see mallets ready to fall on HR from every corner. Most HR and C-level leaders that I’ve spoken with recently are running to stand still, but the real crisis hits when they are asked to answer to their boards on systemic issues such as:
- How are we going to stem rising benefits and healthcare costs without abandoning our population? Per Starbucks’ CEO, “We spend more on healthcare than coffee“.
- How do we retain our employees once the economy fully recovers and they have a choice of employer? CNNMoney reports that 86% of Americans plan to look for a new job in 2011.
- Will my current service providers continue to be in business and will our organization be a priority? Including notables such as Aon/Hewitt, there were dozens of M&A transactions among HR service providers in 2010, a trend that will likely continue to accelerate next year.
- Can we service our own M&A transactions? According to Reuters, 2010 M&A activity grew to $2.2 trillion in 2010, and “next year could be busier still.”
- Can we remain productive? The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its third quarter productivity measures upward following recalculations.
There is no question that 2011 is going to be incredibly busy and that HR will be right in the middle of the melee. My fear is that without appropriate resources (be they financial, technological or personnel) HR will have no choice but to fight the fires as they arise. Thus, I believe we will witness an incredibly busy twelve months of largely reactionary activity.
But what do you think? Do you have suggestions on how HR can avoid this quagmire? Share your comments below, have a safe and spectacular New Year’s Eve and let’s keep the conversation going.
While on my way to Denver this past Sunday I overheard the couple behind me heatedly arguing about holiday gifts for friends and family. The husband’s voice hissed through gnashing teeth as he made the case for a somewhat expensive present for his mother while his equally irate wife asked him how they’d possibly explain the disparity to
It is no exaggeration when I tell you that the past fifty conversations I’ve had with clients have all included a discussion on choice and compromise. This typically involves the phrase, “there are no perfect solutions to [issue/problem X] and we’re going to have to make some tradeoffs“. What I find so interesting is that this tends to calm everyone down as the realization of what I’m stating sets in, thus allowing us to get down to the issue at hand and move the ball forward. I’m no genius and I often sigh at the notion that I have to remind people that choices can be made and tradeoffs are part of everyday life, but as a consultant, I’m often paid to tell people what they already know — it’s the most fascinating and frustrating part of being an advisor to extremely smart people who struggle to get out of their own way.
A few weeks ago I declared that I would be giving away my unused ideas in a series I refer to as
Regardless of the market segment, industry analysts serve as a critical force in rationalizing the construct and constitution of a given space as well as measuring the current and projected growth, the service provider landscape and the likely sustainability of its value proposition to the end users it intends to serve. We purchase their reports, attend their briefings, seek their guidance and generally assume that they are credible sources of unbiased advice and accurate metrics.
Comparative analysis for their own CAGR projections are relatively easy, but what about uncovering their inherent bias? And how do you force them to disclose the financial relationships with the service providers they study and rate? These are much more complex issues and the only means of attaining that level of detail is if the buyer/end user market looks to you as a trusted independent entity and effectivity forces the analyst firms to play ball. Alternatively, you may find that certain analyst firms love this idea because they have confidence in their ability to be beyond approach and they will therefore “score well”. They would welcome a third-party firm to expose their competitors for the frauds they are, right??
This is the trickiest part of the equation and one that the analyst firms themselves constantly wrestle with, namely how you take money from the same organizations you are analyzing. This would require some additional thought as you could see how well-performing analysts would want to leverage their “5 Star Rating” in their literature, on their websites, during briefings, etc., and how you could monetize their ability to do so through a subscription or per-instance licensing agreement.
This conversation occurred last week at
2010 has been a fascinating year in so many ways. Despite experimenting with a variety of new and interesting businesses my mind simply cannot stop thinking about potentially viable opportunities for our highly fragmented and ever-changing industry. These theoretical concepts seek purchase yet rarely crack through their cranial prison. This creates noise and can be incredibly distracting…

In April of 2001,
My very first business was called “M&M Worms”. My brother
Which brings me to 3:00 AM today. The alarm rang to give me ample time to pack, make the pre-dawn drive through Texas hill country to Austin airport, catch a flight to DFW and cab over to the Ft. Worth Convention Center for the 

What Motivates You?
It was about 6:00 am when my Dad entered the kitchen to prepare his second cup of Folgers Crystals. I was already hovering over my cereal bowl, little sugary pieces of multi-colored deliciousness losing their battle with my furious spoon. Placing my empty bowl in the sink, I saw my father reach for a coffee mug from a high shelf, his plaid shirt peaking just far enough over his waistline for a fleshy bit of chub to pour out. My twelve-year-old body started to shake in laughter as I grabbed ahold of his soft midsection and gave it a really healthy squeeze. “Man, look at that. Whoa!!“, I exclaimed with a toothy grin.
He didn’t think it was funny.
Since nonverbal cues weren’t my strong suit I ribbed him about the fact that he had just turned forty and needed to get into shape. With flat affect he proposed a bet – we would wager $1,000 on whether he could pinch a single inch on me on my 40th birthday. “You think you can do it?“, he asked, smirking as I quickly agreed. That was a lot of money and c’mon, I was a toothpick so this would be a no brainer, right?
I took this bet in 1983. I now have four months to win.
This story popped into my head during today’s workout, my breathing heavy as I slogged through another fairly unfulfilling day in the gym. You see, I’m absolutely determined to win this frickin’ bet and there is no way in hell that I intend to go down without a fight. On my walk home I started to reflect on motivation and how I so clearly fall into one prominent motivational subset.
The mysterious minority (in my opinion) are the self-starters, those admirable individuals who are able to motivate themselves through some invisible inner drive. I am absolutely fascinated by their ability to go and go and go without the need for any form of external catalyst or validation. These people are a complete anomaly to most and are not always treated with kindness. Take the hilarious 1999 article from the Onion, “Energetic Self-Starter Instantly Despised By Co-Workers“.
It’s funny because it’s true.
Then there are the rest of us, the mass of reluctant participants who respond most favorably to carrot, stick or both. I embrace my role among this crowd, warmed by the knowledge that I am clearly the most productive when I have committed to do something for someone else. It’s this sense of accountability to others that helps me juggle dozens of items at a time, a motivator I rarely seem to muster from within.
Which brings us back to 1983 and that pesky little kid with the big mouth.
My Dad was wise enough to know the score and that time was on his side, but he also figured out fairly early that without some motivation I’d have a high likelihood of being in the same shape he was at my age. I’d like to think he bet me with these intentions in mind, but maybe he just wanted to shut up his painfully annoying son. Either way, well played sir …
… but I’m still going to win.