2010 – Year of the HR Truism

It took an extensive search of the Inflexion Point attic to locate my dusty crystal ball. Although it’s served me with mixed results in the past, I am a glutton for punishment and can’t resist prognosticating the future of our lovely industry.

But before we look forward, let’s journey back to December of 2008 and see how I fared with my 2009 predictions.

2009 – HR and The Year of The Ox

We had turned to the Chinese Zodiac to guide our predictions for 2009. Did the Ox serve us well? Let’s find out:

Prediction #1: HR will add tremendous value, but not in areas they desire.

Reality: With a direct hit, I (unfortunately) sunk this particular battleship. In fact, I’m just going to include what we said last year to prove the point:

“Executives will turn to you to tackle some of least desirable work in the enterprise. They will count on your discretion, ability to navigate tricky waters and keep them out of trouble, and to do so without a single complaint. Training and experience will matter most and you will perform well. However, this is not what you hoped to be doing with your HR career as transactions will supersede transformation at almost every turn.”

Prediction #2: For many of you, this will be your last year in HR.

Reality: A mixed bag, as many of you did indeed turn out the lights on your own position after downsizing dozens, hundreds or thousands of employees. According to Workforce Management’s 2009 HR Anxiety Survey, many did consider exiting the profession, especially after conducting extensive layoffs. Where my prediction was completely off base was the belief that a newfound distaste for the profession would drive many of you to truly self-select out of HR for greener pastures. But as we all know, grass wasn’t growing anywhere else in 2009, so those who had a job were largely grateful for the simple pleasures of a paycheck and continued benefits.

Prediction #3: HR vendors will take a beating.

Reality: I was largely correct. In reaction to broader economic conditions, most organizations faced several rounds of layoffs in 2009, and HR vendors were no exception. Many took this as an opportunity to reexamine their value proposition, messaging, product strategy, market segmentation, sales and distribution, while others simply hunkered down and waited for the storm to pass. In the past few months, I have witnessed a resurgence of activity from venture firms who see a highly fragmented market that’s ripe for consolidation.

Prediction #4: Welcome to HR 2.0.

Reality: This was a miss. Although there are some wonderful examples of HR embracing new media in 2009, those early adopters still represent a disproportionately small percentage of the overall HR population. The one notable exception may be recruiting as the use of LinkedIn, Facebook and Twitter (in decreasing order of popularity) continues to be touted as table stakes for the modern talent management strategy.

2010 – Year of the HR Truism

With questionable performance in 2009, let’s go ahead and jump right into my thoughts for the first year of the new decade. Wow… a new decade. Remember ten years ago when we thought the world’s infrastructure would fail because of Y2K? No need to stockpile this time around.

In the spirit of “what’s old is new again”, I firmly believe that 2010 will unfortunately repeat some of same tired old truisms that continue to be part of industry folklore. If you’re wondering what a “truism” is, Merriam-Webster defines it as an undoubted or self-evident truth; especially one too obvious to mention.

Since we’re masters of the obvious, I’ll mention them anyway:

Prediction #1: The Vocal Minority Will Be Unhappy

Pockets of industry discontent grew louder in 2009 and I don’t see any means of bottling this particular genie. To the contrary, I suspect calls for material change will continue to be heard and that many are starting to take note of the vocal minority. However, to go mainstream, HR’s largest influencers will need to materially participate in defining, developing and nurturing this next generation of thinking. It will not be easy, glass will be broken and feathers ruffled. However, if properly organized and clearly outcome-based, this could be a very exciting year for (r)evolutionary change.

Why It’s A Truism: The vocal minority has always been unhappy and it hasn’t resulted in moving the industry in a measurable way. Why should 2010 be any different?

Prediction #2: Technology Will Fix What Ails Us

With so much noise surrounding the various and sundry means of leveraging social media, many have lost sight of the underlying strategies that these tools are meant to enable. It sounds trite, but we all know that tools are just tools… don’t we? Many will look to technology to fix what ails them and therefore lose sight of the destination. Scope your projects tightly and only look to technology once you clearly understand how it will address explicit and well-defined outcomes factored against the nuances of your organization.

Why It’s A Truism: This is an age-old problem in human resources. Technology has often been viewed as an end versus a means. Shocking, I know.

Prediction #3: The Value Of Memberships Will Be (Passively) Questioned

You all have industry memberships. In fact, on average you hold approximately eight active memberships to a wide variety of paid and unpaid industry groups and forums. But let’s face it, 2010 is going to be busy and you will reflect back on 2009 and ponder where you truly found value when times were tough. You don’t have the capacity to attend all the conferences, read all the publications, attend all the local chapter meetings and log into dozens of social networking sites, forums and affinity groups. You will quietly say “enough already” and make some hard choices. Many of you have done this already. That being said, you may retain many of these affiliations (especially if your company pays for them) and passively vote with your time. This may shock some low-value players as they review their utilization rates and engagement statistics this time next year.

Why It’s A Truism: We have always complained about the value of our memberships yet seem to rarely vote with our feet or participate in driving change from within.

Prediction #4: Managers Will Terrorize HR

Managers need HR because managers are generally incompetent, and nowhere is this more acutely felt than when the engines of growth start to turn. Economists remain torn as to when a full-blown recovery will kick into high gear, but is generally believed this will hit in late Q3/early Q4 2010. As HR professionals, you know exactly what this means. Whining line managers who never listened will come clamoring in droves for your services. I use “terrorize” because that’s how it works – an unexpected, unplanned attack that wreaks havoc upon the psyche of the unsuspecting. What do you do? Start planning now. Get the troops in order and preemptively strike.

Why It’s A Truism: If you solved the manager dilemma you would work yourself right out of a job. Don’t believe me? Listen to this candid interview with Laurie Ruettimann (if you dare).

Thoughts?

On bended knee, I implore you to please, please prove me wrong. I would love nothing more than to open this post in December of 2010 and join you in a hearty laugh at my shortsightedness and ignorance. In fact, I’m going to work actively in 2010 to try and crush my crystal ball to pieces. I hope you’ll join me in doing the same, because I know I can’t do it alone.

I say it every post, but others are starting to use my little catch phrase in their communications:

“… let’s keep the conversation going.”

I truly mean it. Write me. Call me. Message me on Twitter. Comment below. Brief me on the unbelievably cool things you’re doing and let’s spread the word. Remember this – I work for you, and the future is in your hands.